Month: August 2013

The Anti-Apple ⇥ asymco.com

MG Siegler on the two reasons Wall Street loves Amazon:

First, they know that Bezos is devouring Amazon’s profits by pouring them into infrastructure build-outs. Data centers, shipping centers, etc. These are one-time costs that should pay off in the long run.

Second, they believe that at some point in the future, Amazon will flip a switch and, voila, profit.

I have been just as mystified as anyone as to why Amazon’s stock is doing as well as it is, despite quarter after quarter of loss. I think Siegler’s first reason is clever, but his second is misguided. Horace Dediu:

What I take issue with is the premise that Amazon is the “anti-Apple” in its hunger for growth and patience for profits. Apple has its own “Amazon-like-business”: iTunes has been growing at a steady 25% or more and it also has its ancillary zero-profit hardware analogue to the Kindle called Apple TV. iTunes is a great business in the Amazon vein, harvesting hundreds of millions of users (and their credit cards.) Presumably iTunes could also some day “flip the switch” and become profitable, but something magical needs to happen. Something like becoming a payments processor or retailer of other things. Analyst beware however. There might be conditions that make such switch flipping extremely difficult.

At an even deeper level, Apple and Amazon are much more alike than they are different. They are both hired for similar jobs (convenience, ease of use and a controlled, predictable environment for average users interacting with technology). They both focus on delighting customers and controlling all the variables which come into contact with that delight. They both have long-term views and are driven by vision rather than competition.

Third Time’s the Charm ⇥ readwrite.com

ReadWrite’s Dan Rowinski:

Overall, IDC predicts 45.1 million tablets were shipped in Q2 2013. The 9.7% decline from Q1 this year means that manufacturers shipped about 4.37 million fewer tablets between the first and second quarters of the year. Considering that iPad sales dropped by more than that—4.9 million units—something else really picked up the slack.

What could it be? A longshoreman?

That something else was Android.

Oh, that Rowinski and his masterful storytelling.

This IDC report is the third I’ve seen which shows a marked increase in shipments of Android tablets, after Strategy Analytics’ and Canalys’. Both of those are of dubious accuracy owing to the lack of shipment reporting from companies other than Apple, so take this one with a grain of salt, too.

But three reports with broadly similar conclusions (if by widely differing margins) does suggest a trend — the iPad may not retain market dominance forever. But if Android-based tablets are really now the market leader, shouldn’t that be shown in browser usage?

As Apple insists on still charging a premium for its smartphones and tablets, it gave Android the opportunity to carve out a wide swath of the market, from the poorest low-end tablet on the market to very nice options such as the new Nexus 7 that Google announced last week.

Just because Amazon and Google are selling their tablets at (or, perhaps, below) cost, that doesn’t mean Apple is charging a premium.

Chrome’s Insane Password Security Strategy ⇥ blog.elliottkember.com

Elliott Kember:

There’s no master password, no security, not even a prompt that “these passwords are visible”. Visit chrome://settings/passwords in Chrome if you don’t believe me.

I’d love to be in the meeting when they were discussing this.

Oh wait, let’s ask Justin Schuh, head of Chrome security:

The only strong permission boundary for your password storage is the OS user account. So, Chrome uses whatever encrypted storage the system provides to keep your passwords safe for a locked account. Beyond that, however, we’ve found that boundaries within the OS user account just aren’t reliable, and are mostly just theater. […]

We’ve also been repeatedly asked why we don’t just support a master password or something similar, even if we don’t believe it works. We’ve debated it over and over again, but the conclusion we always come to is that we don’t want to provide users with a false sense of security, and encourage risky behavior.

So no verification is required to reveal all of your internet account passwords that you’ve saved in Chrome. Spectacular.

In a sense, Schuh is right — the only way to lock your system is at the user level. But this just seems like a silly way to rationalize a plainly poor decision. Using no security at all is not better than modest security.

FaceTime Every Day ⇥ apple.com

Federico Viticci called it:

Sadly I don’t think there’s room for more Apple “…Every Day” ads. “Work/Messages Every Day” aren’t as emotional. Maybe FaceTime again?

Another one of these beautiful little ads. Very elegant, with simple little touches that bring the whole thing together in a bundle of heartstring-tugging happiness. And so forth.

I am a little skeptical of this one, however. While the “Photos Every Day” spot was verifiable through Flickr stats, and the “Music Every Day” one was somewhat logical (Apple makes the best portable music players, and one of them happens to also be a phone), this one seems fuzzier. Microsoft touted 115 billion minutes of Skype time last quarter — an average of 1.27 billion minutes every day. Some of that must be purely computer-to-computer, but it’s hard to believe that Skype — the cross-platform near-synonym-for-video-calling app — is less popular than the iOS/OS X-only FaceTime. I’d love to see the figures on this.

Thunderbolt Is (Still) Massively Faster Than USB ⇥ storagereview.com

Thunderbolt is shaping up to be similar to FireWire, insomuch as it lacks mainstream adoption, but is significantly better for professionals. This 2012 article is proof of that. (And can you imagine the speed improvements with Thunderbolt 2 and a contemporary SSD?) That’s why the upcoming Mac Pro doesn’t ship with six USB 3 ports.

Even the 2015 USB spec promises less than Thunderbolt 1.0 speeds — while it may be 10 Gbps, that’s the total bandwidth available; Thunderbolt offers 10 Gbps simultaneously in both directions. For professionals who need the fastest speeds — video editors, musicians, and photographers — Thunderbolt is simply the best solution.

Jeff Bezos’ Letter to Washington Post Employees ⇥ washingtonpost.com

Jeff Bezos bought the Washington Post for $250 million:

The values of The Post do not need changing. The paper’s duty will remain to its readers and not to the private interests of its owners. We will continue to follow the truth wherever it leads, and we’ll work hard not to make mistakes. When we do, we will own up to them quickly and completely. […]

There is no map, and charting a path ahead will not be easy. We will need to invent, which means we will need to experiment. Our touchstone will be readers, understanding what they care about – government, local leaders, restaurant openings, scout troops, businesses, charities, governors, sports – and working backwards from there. I’m excited and optimistic about the opportunity for invention.

MG Siegler has some thoughts on why Bezos is the perfect new owner of a newspaper:

That’s great news for The Post though. If anyone is willing pump money into a company as profits dive, it’s Jeff Bezos.

And I mean that in a good, only mildly snarky way. Bezos is a genius. His razor-thin profit management with Amazon is brilliant.

Interesting perspective. Both the New York Times and the Boston Globe have been praised for their online efforts, but neither one has a Bezos at the helm. This is a truly exciting prospect for the Post.

Canalys’ Methodology ⇥ pxlnv.com

Me, quoting Canalys’ only reference to their methodology on their website:

Each of our services benefits from the same strict methodology, with clear, global definitions and detailed, country-level data published on the same day – no preliminary data or forecasts.

If they’re not using preliminary data or forecasts, they must have direct industry connections (or are using estimates, which they don’t specify). Strategy Analytics pegged the iPad’s market share in Q2 at 28%, while Canalys claimed it was 43% — a significant difference. I don’t trust either report, but why such disparity?

Now I know. Pin-Chen Tang, an analyst with Canalys, shared some of their techniques via email:

The primary research technique used is to approach the product vendors, which then share their quarterly and annual shipment information with Canalys. Canalys requests detail regarding shipments across the various countries and product types. Vendors often provide this information to Canalys in electronic format and submit it via e-mail. […]

Despite the benefits, some vendors choose to operate a less than fully open policy. They may prefer to use a method based on the sharing of estimates, thus increasing the resources required by both Canalys and the vendor concerned. […]

A few vendors refuse to cooperate with market analysts. These are often, but not exclusively, privately owned companies unfamiliar with the duties of disclosure that are common in publicly quoted companies.

Some companies will reveal information to Canalys, but not to shareholders — why do I doubt that? I think the second and third types are much more frequently encountered (may I remind you, again, that the biggest non-Apple tablet brands don’t share their sales figures publicly). So, like Strategy Analytics, Canalys uses estimation:

All feedback provided to Canalys is kept in the strictest confidence. Canalys will not reveal the extent to which vendors have been cooperative. All results Canalys publishes are described as ‘estimates’ regardless of the actual data source. This process guarantees the impartiality of the results.

Golly. I wonder who that benefits.

How to Look Like a Buffoon in 800 Words or Less ⇥ huffingtonpost.com

Oren Frank, for the bastion of quality reporting that is the Huffington Post:

How to Turn an Apple Believer to Android in Ten Minutes or Less

Show them Google Now?

Dear apple geniuses, misfits, the very ones who are “not fond of rules”*.

Way to quote the “Think Different” campaign. You’re very original. (Please note all capitalization is [sic]).

If you looked at my apple ID, I think you’ll notice I’m not your worst client. Au contraire. In the last couple of years I purchased a few dozen apple devices, and that’s before software, apps, iCloud, and the continuous bloodbath on iTunes after my daughter cracked my password again.

There’s the obligatory “I’m no hater” introduction.

In the good days of your cult, when the prophet was still with us, our mental P&L accepted the apple formula of “We come up with amazing new products, and you pay an arm, leg and a kidney, and never ever question the faith.”

And there’s the obligatory use of religious terminology. By the way, John Sculley isn’t dead, and nobody thinks he’s a proph— oh, Oren’s referring to Steve Jobs. Right.

I still think your company and your products are far better — my macbook airs, iPads, apple TV’s and yes, even my iPhone 5 are all in my opinion (still) better than their competitors.

So why talk Android? Because you insulted me and my intelligence.

Warning, reader: this blog post is about to insult your intelligence.

I bought one of the very first iPhone 5’s and unfortunately smashed the screen. I then went to an apple store where they asked for $400 for the repair. I sighed, found a kiosk, and got it fixed for half. Two things happened since: you understood you need to provide a reasonable repair service and dropped the price to $150, and I managed to crack the screen yet again. This time I headed to the NJ Garden State Plaza store, and asked to pay for a new screen. Jovanie the genius was very cool and informed me he can’t fix it because it’s not the original screen.

First, a display replacement used to cost $229, not $400; I’m not sure where the latter figure came from, but I suspect either the employee was mistaken or Oren isn’t telling the full story.

Second, the part used by the third-party replacement service wasn’t an original Apple part, so what the hell does this guy expect? Would he expect Apple to service a knock-off iPhone under warranty?

So I wanted to say goodbye and thanks for all the fish. I’m moving on. I also wanted to wish you luck; if my experience is indicative I think luck may come in handy soon.

Don’t let the door hit you in the ass.

“DRM Is a Religion” ⇥ daringfireball.net

Ever since I linked to Watts Martin’s stance on HTML5 video DRM, I’ve been questioning my position on it. I generally agree with this sentiment, expressed perfectly by John Gruber in April, 2012:

DRM is a religion for old-growth media executives. Rational thought could lead them to this solution, but won’t, because they’re starting with an irrational bedrock assumption: that there can exist a technical solution to defeat piracy. Their belief in DRM is a matter of faith, not logic.

But I also think DRM is excusable in cases of streaming or rental content. Things I buy should not have DRM; things I rent (or stream, or borrow, or whatever) can be DRM’d up the wazoo without complaint. The latter are sold under a completely different contract, and expectations of user “freedom” should match.

Another Sketchy “Report” From “Analysts” ⇥ canalys.com

Remember Strategy Analytics’ reports from earlier this week, which showed that Android tablets had vastly overtaken iPad shipments by a whopping 40 percentage points? Get ready to have your mind blown again — Canalys has just released a similar report:

Over 34 million tablets shipped in Q2 2013, a 43% year-on-year increase. Tablets now account for 31% of worldwide PC shipments. But Apple’s performance faltered. Its tablet shipments declined 14% on Q2 2012 and its market share dropped to 43%. The chasing pack of Samsung, Amazon, Lenovo and Acer each grew annually by over 200%, driven by increasing demand for small-screen tablets.

As you’d expect, this bit of drama has received significant press exposure. But there are some issues with this report.

First, Canalys uses a Tynt-esque script on their page, and that’s very irritating.

More relevant to finding the bunk in this report is the lack of methodology. As ever, Samsung, et. al. don’t release their quarterly shipment figures; only Apple currently reports shipments in a number format, not in nebulous feel-good terms. Aside from an oblique reference on their “About” page, Canalys doesn’t publish their methodology:

Each of our services benefits from the same strict methodology, with clear, global definitions and detailed, country-level data published on the same day – no preliminary data or forecasts.

If they’re not using preliminary data or forecasts, they must have direct industry connections (or are using estimates, which they don’t specify). Strategy Analytics pegged the iPad’s market share in Q2 at 28%, while Canalys claimed it was 43% — a significant difference. I don’t trust either report, but why such disparity?

I have contacted Canalys with a request for comment, and haven’t heard back yet; I will update if I do.

If these numbers are, indeed, more reliable than Strategy Analytics’ figures, they’re still not borne out by browser share. All in all, Canalys’ report is suspect, and asks a lot more questions than it answers. All this does is bolster my argument that none of these research firms’ statistics can be entirely trusted.

The NSA Tool So Secret It’s Advertised on Job Boards ⇥ blog.foreignpolicy.com

Elias Groll, Foreign Policy:

The apparent irony of unabashedly advertising for analysts and technicians to run one of the country’s most closely guarded intelligence operations seems to have been entirely lost on the companies’ respective HR departments. The Raytheon listing, for example, includes a long list of NSA or other intelligence community programs, most of which have received scant attention: “PINWALE/UIS, XKEYSCORE ANCHORY/MAUI, MARINA/YACHTSHOP, PATHFINDER, BANYAN, CADENCE, CROSSBONES, FASCIA, MAINWAY, TUNINGFORK, TRICKLER, UTT.”

EXIF Data Crisis Watch ⇥ wired.com

Christina Bonnington of Wired sounds the alarm:

[Y]ou could be inadvertently telling the world your location every time you send out a photo. What do Facebook snaps, tweeted candids, MMS messages to your plumber, and almost every other photo-based form of digital communication have in common? The metadata embedded in your smartphone’s photos.

Partially correct: MMS messages to your plumber¹ will carry GPS data, but they know where you live anyway. But almost every photo hosting site — Imgur, Twitter, and Facebook included — strip all EXIF data from uploaded photos, including removing embedded GPS information.

Update: It appears that Photobucket doesn’t remove EXIF data, and Flickr retains it in the original size. Flickr has a setting to prevent public access to the original size; you shouldn’t be using Photobucket anyway.

“She Got a Key Assumption Wrong” ⇥ emptyage.com

Some followup from Mat Honan regarding yesterday’s “Pressure Cookers and Backpacks” story.

Pay to Play ⇥ verynicewebsite.net

John Moltz, quoting Politico’s Steve Friess in a story about Apple’s minimal lobbying:

“It’s inevitable,” said a top Washington consultant who works with major tech brands. “Everybody gets a shot at being a fair-haired boy and that can keep the regulators away for a while. But nobody stays favored forever. That’s why you need friends.”

In other words, nice business you got here, it would be a shame if something were to happen to it.

Federal Bureau of Infiltration ⇥ online.wsj.com

Jennifer Valentino-Devries, the Wall Street Journal:

The FBI develops some hacking tools internally and purchases others from the private sector. With such technology, the bureau can remotely activate the microphones in phones running Google Inc.’s Android software to record conversations, one former U.S. official said.

I’m not a public relations expert, but it seems like this is a bad day for Google to introduce an Android phone that’s always listening to you.

Your App Makes Me Fat ⇥ seriouspony.com

Fascinating article from Kathy Sierra (via Marco Arment):

Willpower and cognitive processing draw from the same pool of resources.

Spend hours at work on a tricky design problem? You’re more likely to stop at Burger King on the drive home. Hold back from saying what you really think during one of those long-ass, painful meetings? You’ll struggle with the code you write later that day.

Pressure Cookers and Backpacks ⇥ medium.com

Michele Catalano:

I had researched pressure cookers. My husband was looking for a backpack. And maybe in another time those two things together would have seemed innocuous, but we are in “these times” now. And in these times, when things like the Boston bombing happen, you spend a lot of time on the internet reading about it and, if you are my exceedingly curious news junkie of a twenty-year-old son, you click a lot of links when you read the myriad of stories. You might just read a CNN piece about how bomb making instructions are readily available on the internet and you will in all probability, if you are that kid, click the link provided.

The Inside Story of the Moto X ⇥ wired.com

Skip the press releases (and the hurriedly re-typed press releases) and read this, from Wired’s Steven Levy. It’s clear that this is a huge bet from Motorola.

The AMOLED display is disappointing; while it allows for some clever barely-on software features, displays of this type are noticeably oversaturated. The phone will ship with Android 4.2.2, not the current 4.3 version. This is odd, especially when you consider that Google owns the company. Some things clearly aren’t meshing yet.

Customers can choose from hundreds of colour combinations to differentiate their phone from the generic glass slabs that are ever-so-popular with business types. Like the Nokia Lumia and the upcoming plastic-backed iPhone variant, the Moto X has consumer-level aspirations. It recognizes that smartphones are purchased by all kinds of people. That’s a great marketing angle.

The Nexus 7’s Display ⇥ anandtech.com

Last year’s Nexus 7 had a display that was often described as being good enough for a product which cost $200. While the iPad Mini wasn’t close in pixel density, it made up for it by having a better-calibrated display which was much brighter, more accurate, more uniform.

The new Nexus 7, though, has a display that’s absolutely fantastic for a product of any price, yet it’s still $229. I don’t think evaluating products on a spec sheet basis is effective, but I will be displeased if there is not an option for a retina display on an iPad Mini later this year, even if it’s a more expensive model.¹ While Apple cannot compete with Google’s near-zero profit margins (and should not compete on spec sheets alone), the calibre of the iPad Mini’s display is wanting.