Moore’s Law Will Be Dead Within a Decade ⇥ extremetech.com

Joel Hruska, ExtremeTech:

“For planning horizons, I pick 2020 as the earliest date we could call [Moore’s law] dead,” Colwell said. “You could talk me into 2022, but whether it will come at 7 or 5nm, it’s a big deal.”

First, a law that is temporary is a pretty shitty law.

Second, this is entirely expected:

People often talk about Moore’s law as if it’s the semiconductor equivalent of gravity, but in reality, nothing else we’ve ever discovered has scaled like semiconductor design. From mud huts to skyrscrapers [sic], we’ve never built a structure that’s thousands of times smaller, thousands of times faster, and thousands of times more power efficient, at the same time, within a handful of decades.