Market Research is Still Full of Shit

If you want to estimate the market share of any product with any degree of accuracy, the research needs to be solid. ABI Research has released a report citing Apple’s tablet share at just 55% — significantly greater than any single competitor, but less than you’d expect.

ABI says that the iPad Mini has failed during the most critical sales period of the year, but that sales period has barely begun. They say that Android tablets are over 40% of the market, but they don’t say how that figure was acquired. They say that Android tablets are poised to overtake the iPad in the middle of 2013, but they base this on their mystery estimation techniques. Finally, and most importantly, ABI forgets that Apple will be announcing their sales figures at the end of January, but their competitors will not. Nobody knows exactly how many tablets Samsung, Asus, or Amazon are selling because those companies don’t release their figures.