Month: October 2026

Kate Knibbs, Wired:

Verifact Markets, a new startup that bills itself as a “prediction market for disputed facts,” is betting that people will be eager to weigh in on questions like these. The company’s premise is so quirky it sounds like something a couple of philosophy and economics majors dreamed after too many bong rips in their dorm room: Instead of wagering on the future, why not trade on stuff that already happened?

If you bet the Moon landing was faked, you could get a 10:1 payout if your bet comes true. Except there is already plenty of evidence the Moon landing was not filmed in a studio that to call it a “disputed fact” is braindead, and the only people betting it was faked will not accept the outcome. Also, Knibbs reports any of these individual betting pools can expire if the company determines there is not enough evidence either way, so this is not going to resolve any supposedly “disputed facts”.

This is so idiotic — so utterly devoid of meaningful thought — that it will either collapse in less than a year, or it is going to further wreck the minds of some of the most powerful people in the world.

Apple, in a Developer News post I am reproducing in its entirety, segment-by-segment:

We give developers powerful APIs to build incredible capabilities into their apps for Apple products, backed by a set of controls designed to protect users’ private data. Full Disk Access largely sidesteps these controls in order to allow backup apps to function properly on the Mac.

As John Voorhees writes, the uses of Full Disk Access go well beyond the category of backup apps, and it is worrisome to see Apple give it such a limited frame. I have given that permission to disk management utilities, Sketch, Terminal, and other apps I do not want to be throwing permissions requests as I move around my drives. Is Apple suggesting this capability could be limited in the future to backup applications alone? I do not like that.

Some developers are using Full Disk Access in ways that could put users at risk, exposing everything on their systems — including files, mail, messages, and even browsing history — without users’ full knowledge and understanding.

This seems very clearly a response to Jason Aten’s claim, in Inc, that Meta’s Muse agent software accessed and uploaded his Messages database without permission. This story is, as of writing, still confusing to me because Aten does not clearly describe the circumstances.

Full Disk Access is required because the Messages database is protected by MacOS. Giving Muse this permission is one of two prerequisites. The other, according to Meta’s Andy Stone, is something called the Messages Connector. Aten says he “had explicitly declined to connect Messages” but when he “looked at Muse’s settings afterward, Messages was enabled” anyway. In a follow-up article, Aten suggests he turned on Full Disk Access, then turned it off — though he does not say this explicitly — after which Muse was still able to read Messages data. If so, it indicates a possible MacOS security problem. But I must stress that I am confused by Aten’s description of the chain of events. As I was (slowly) putting this article together, Jeff Johnson attempted to reproduce the circumstances of Aten’s articles as he, like me, found the description confusing. As Johnson writes, “if Muse uploaded Aten’s Messages database, as he claims, then Aten granted Full Disk Access to Muse at some point. There’s no other plausible explanation”.

Regardless, we now have a wave of poorly regulated and frequently misconfigured software that scoop up user data with barely any notice, so Apple says — as you will read later — that it is stepping in to curb a likely vector for unintended consequences in Full Disk Access. However, it provides no details on what these additional restrictions will look like for users. It could be something as minor as a sterner dialog box, but I do not see a reason why Apple would issue a warning about a change like that.

Because of the lack of information available at present, I do not want to get too far ahead of myself, but I am concerned that it could be a significant curtailing of application permissions. It has the potential for further self-preferencing, as Apple will surely exempt Siri from the kinds of permissions requests it requires of third-party apps, even as it is updated with additional capabilities. In MacOS Golden Gate, for example, apps must be excluded if you do not want Apple Intelligence or Siri to have access. This makes sense inasmuch as Apple trusts itself, and users have agreed to its software license agreement and privacy policy. But an aggressive policy against broad access also means third-party software will be further disadvantaged on MacOS. Meta is, thanks to feeble government regulations and a seemingly skeezy management culture, the last company whose agent I would trust to run rampant across my system. But suppose there was an agent I felt comfortable using and felt like there was a reason to do so. No matter its potential capabilities, it would struggle to compete with Siri because of how privileged and integrated the latter already is — and now consider how much more difficult it would be if Full Disk Access were kneecapped.

One might argue that it is hardly a surprise since Apple has been promoting its unique “personal context” advantage since it began marketing Apple Intelligence in 2024. And Siri has always been privileged: since Apple integrated it with the iPhone 4S, it has been able to send and read text messages, emails, and more. Apple Intelligence and Siri are just another part of the system — part of the whole widget. And that “whole widget” stance cuts both ways. Not only does it affect users on Apple’s hardware, it also means Apple does not treat Apple Intelligence or Siri as software it will bring to other platforms. Apple is only competing in this market on its own products, which means its virtual assistant has a platform-level market share of basically 100%, and not because it has outcompeted any rivals.

Call me a naïve little baby if you want, but I do not think preserving Siri’s dominance on Apple’s devices is the company’s reason for locking down Full Disk Access. But Apple’s existing restrictions are part of the reason Siri was awful for a decade. If it had the opportunity to compete with third-party replacements, I doubt it would have languished in a miserable state for as long as it did. I cannot imagine people have been choosing Apple’s products to get Siri. Perhaps virtual assistants and agents will become important enough to people that they will become a factor in hardware purchasing decisions. Maybe that could even mean the development of newer platforms to compete at a higher level. But I worry about the likelihood of incumbent platform owners — the kind the European Commission has called “gatekeepers” — using privacy and security arguments to curtail possible competition.

Back to Apple:

For communication apps, this can also compromise the privacy of the people users are communicating with.

You know what else could compromise communications privacy? iCloud. By default, device backups include a user’s Messages conversation history in a format Apple can decrypt. Users must turn on Advanced Data Protection, enabling true end-to-end encrypted backups, but their conversation partners may not, undermining its effectiveness.

Going forward, we will introduce additional controls to ensure that users who genuinely wish to grant an app this extraordinary level of access can only do so with very explicit user action. Addressing this is critical. As AI agents become increasingly capable and autonomous, the risks associated with this level of access will grow substantially. We are committed to ensuring users clearly understand these risks before granting such access, so they can make informed decisions about their own data and privacy.

This is an issue of platform owners playing a regulatory role that should be occupied by actual lawmaking. People should not need to worry that granting Full Disk Access to software made by a well-known company will produce a result indistinguishable from malware. We have been through this before. In 2012, the iOS app Path was caught uploading users’ contacts without explicit permission for its friend finding feature. There was theoretically nothing to prevent other iOS apps from abusing their access to the Photos library, either. All of these things are now gated behind App Store moderation on iOS, Full Disk Access on MacOS, and permission request sheets on both platforms.

It worries me that this nascent and seemingly niche world of agents is going to be another thing for users to understand and platforms to control. But, then again, I also have to wonder if the reasons I use Full Disk Access are perhaps a smaller niche. I just hope Apple’s response to this does not spoil my personal use, nor should it be a further gate to keep.

The White House issued an executive order last week:

The terminology used by the Federal Government should reflect the transformative capabilities of these technologies and the limitless opportunities they create for the American people. Accordingly, the term “Super Intelligence” more appropriately captures the promise, potential, and rapidly advancing capabilities of these technologies. It is therefore the policy of my Administration that, to the maximum extent permitted by law, the executive branch shall use the terms “Super Intelligence” and “SI” in place of “Artificial Intelligence” and “AI” and will not acknowledge the usage of “Artificial Intelligence” and “AI” in any applicable setting.

A neat thing about this is that, unlike with the Lake Ontario thing, this is not compelled through an official data set or similar. It is just a house style guide among the federal government, kind of like how they use two spaces after a period even though they are no longer using typewriters. Because “super intelligence” is optional, it becomes very easy to see who is pledging loyalty to the king by changing their internal vocabulary to mimic his. The first is no surprise.

Mike Pearl, Gizmodo:

Elon Musk says he’s embracing the term “Super Intelligence” so completely that he’ll even rename one of his companies for apparent consistency. After announcing his preference for the term Super Intelligence on X, a user asked him about “renaming to SpaceXSI.” Musk replied “Yes, we will make that change.”

Musk is a toady so this is to be expected. Mark Zuckerberg was ahead of the curve. I wonder, as the U.S. Federal Trade Commission begins investigating Anthropic and OpenAI, if they will spontaneously come around to this new expectation.

Semafor published a graph earlier this week purportedly showing a staggering decline in tourism to the United States from five countries. Among them, it appeared to illustrate a decline from over twenty million Canadian visitors a few years ago to under eight million this year. That felt fishy to me as I had also recently read a Statistics Canada bulletin claiming Canadian travel to the U.S. in June rose by 5% year-over-year, marking the “third consecutive month of growth”. How do we reconcile this with Semafor’s graph?

Kieran Healy:

These numbers come from International Trade Administration’s I-94 arrivals data. They maintain a spreadsheet that counts all international visitors by country of residence who arrive in the U.S., spend at least one night here, are among qualified visa holders, including tourist visas and waivers and so forth. This is a monthly series. Right now, we only have data up to August of 2026, and for a couple of countries in the graph only up till June. I think — I am only guessing — that what the person who made this graph did was aggregate to yearly totals, plot those points, and then smooth them. (That’s why the y-axis values are so large in comparison to the ones on the monthly graphs I’m about to show you.) But the data for 2026 are only for half the year, hence the giant drop.

Graphs are supposed to be illuminating, helping to illustrate concepts that are difficult to conceptualize with numbers or words alone. What Semafor produced is the opposite of that: it is horribly misleading, and should be retracted.

Glenn Fleishman, writing at Six Colors:

ElevationLab has released an AirTag product I find appalling, and I strongly urge they immediately withdraw it from sale and recall all inventory. The AirTag Silencer is a simple device: remove the back panel and battery from an AirTag, position the Silencer’s highly engineered pin over the speaker, tap the pin with a hammer, and the AirTag’s speaker is destroyed. This prevents it from emitting an alert in three circumstances, only one of which is triggered by an owner. The other two scenarios aid stalkers and perpetrators of domestic violence, among others. I will not link to it.

News stories of AirTags allegedly being used to facilitate stalking and harassment appear regularly: I found lawsuits or cases in California, Illinois, Louisiana, Michigan, and Oregon, in the last two months alone. In the U.K., the Independent filed a freedom of information request of police in England and Wales and found the use of location trackers in stalking cases had risen from 57 in 2018 to 568 in 2024. Not all of those involve AirTags, but as a discreet and inexpensive option — remember what the FBI used in 2011? — it seems designed for abuse.

Why enable that predictable consequence?

Ryan Whitwam, Ars Technica:

Like Chromebooks, Googlebooks are guaranteed 10 years of software support. However, the latest Chromebook models won’t get that in the traditional way. Google’s support page says that it plans to continue ChromeOS support through “mid-2034,” so there are already devices with support windows beyond that.

[…]

Rather than get into a Windows XP situation in which it had to keep extending update support, the support page says that Google intends to upgrade newer Chromebooks to the Googlebook OS. It doesn’t have specifics on the timeline or which models will be included, but the company does note that, in many cases, this will be a “direct migration.”

Thom Holwerda:

Google promised 10 years of updates for all Chromebooks, and it’s now breaking that promise for anyone buying a Chromebook between now and whenever the last Chromebook rolls off the production line. Sadly, we live in a world where corporations are free to make and break whatever promises they want virtually free of consequences, and as society we’re so used to it that anti-consumer behaviour like this barely elicits a shrug.

I was ready to link to this in full agreement but I first wanted to verify this assumption that ChromeOS updates will stop being delivered after 2034. I checked the Chromebook auto-update policy, and it turns out there are 59 models with support through 2035, and 38 with support through 2036. So it seems Google is fulfilling that ten-year promise, right?

Well, that is not exactly true, either. I compared the update policy document against Best Buy’s Chromebook results as a kind of quick benchmark. The first result at time of writing is Lenovo’s Chromebook m 15.3″ which, indeed, Google says will receive updates until June 2036. The second result is the ASUS CM14 Flip 14″. Google says that will only get updates until June 2033. That product was released in 2023, so that would technically qualify as ten years of updates from day one, but Best Buy is showing this three year old computer as the second most relevant search result for “Chromebook”. The third result is a refurbished product so I will skip it. The fourth is the ASUS CX15, and Google says that will get auto-updates until June 2032 — but that spec matches the version released only earlier this year. Perhaps that is a bigger scandal: you could have bought this Chromebook in May, well before the Googlebook announcement, expecting ten years of updates, but Google only says it will deliver them for the next six years.

Whitwam:

It’s understandable that Google doesn’t want to make this more clear — Chromebooks may not have caught on for consumers, but they’re big in schools and business. Googlebooks won’t have comparable management tools for a year or more, according to the support page. If Google is more open about ditching ChromeOS, its Chromebook business could take a dive before Googlebooks are even theoretically in a position to take over.

I disagree — I think Google absolutely should make this stuff clear. What it does to sales is of concern only to Google and its shareholders. And, anyway, the Googlebooks announcement is probably going to affect current sales either way as I.T. departments figure out what to buy. Might as well tell a complete story instead of leaving questions unanswered.

Maybe I am, as a Mac user, simply jealous of contemplating ten years of upgrades.